Analyst’s Forecast: many countries which have not yet deployed 4G, will prefer immediately move to 5G

Analyst’s Forecast: many countries which have not yet deployed 4G, will prefer immediately move to 5G

Previously, developing countries have always lagged behind in the implementation of cellular networks. It would be logical to assume that the situation will be repeated with the introduction of 5G, but experts from ABI Research consulting company believe that the transition to 5G in developing countries will be faster than expected. The total average annual growth rate of 5G subscribers in emerging markets in the period from 2020 to 2030 is estimated at 26%, which is only slightly less than the forecast for the world as a whole of 28%.

“The pace of 5G deployments in emerging markets will be accelerated by a combination of regulations, efficient technologies such as peripheral computing and OpenRAN (ORAN), and the broader usage options offered by 5G,” said Miguel Castaneda, analyst at ABI Research, commenting on the forecast.

The main obstacles to nationwide 5G deployments in developing countries are based on the capital-intensive 5G infrastructure and the deteriorating financial health of the emerging market telecommunications sector. These factors are compounded when considering additional logistical and financial factors for countries such as Vietnam or Thailand, where the rural population is large.

Factors that contribute to the growing momentum of 5G deployment should also be considered. These include changing consumer demographics, increased use of smartphones and affordable 5G devices in ABI Research, which are leading to exponential growth in data consumption in developing countries and increasing demand for appropriate infrastructure.


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